Soft Landing oder Hard Landing? Nordkorea in der Krise

Abstract

The analysis of the economic, social and political crisis in North Korea indicates that three different scenarios for unification on the Korean peninsula are possible. Against this background the article investigates recent developments in North Korea as well as the diplomatic efforts of concerned states to engage the Kim regime: the Four-Party talks, the Beijing Talks between the two Koreas, and the Missile Talks between the North and the United States. The article concludes that for now a violent breakdown of the North Korea regime ("hard landing"- scenario) is possible but not very likely. The same applies to a "soft landing"- scenario, a peaceful melt down of the dynastic Kim regime. In the medium term, however, chances for regime survival are expected to wither in spite of recent North Korean advances in acquiring and blackmailing international support.