Elections and the Tamil Crisis in Sri Lanka: Results and Impacts

Abstract Between November 1988 and February 1989 four elections took place in Sri Lanka and India which all had significance in different ways for the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. They were the Provincial Council elections, the Presidential elections, and the Parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka, and the elections to the Legislative Assembly in Tamilnadu. Though the elections in Sri Lanka held no great surprises as far as the overall political constellations are concerned, the regional details are remarkable in several respects. As expected the EPRLF-TULF alliance won the Provincial council elections, but the high voter turnout surprised even optimists and went against the tenor of many predictions that promised a success for the boycott demands of some militant groups. In the Presidential elections the rather disappointing results for the USA-candidate Abeygunesekare in the Tamil areas must be mentioned, as well as the astonishing alliance of the ACTC with the SLFP. The biggest surprise, however, came during the parliamentary elections in the Tamil areas, where a group of independents known to be close to the LTTE practically eliminated the TULF from political life there. Not less remarkable were the elections in Tamilnadu: after ten years in the political wilderness the DMK gained a convincing victory and could form the new government under Chief Minister Karunanidhi. The article discusses the impact of these elections on the ethnic conflict. It comes to the conclusion that at the moment the Tamils seem to have gained a relatively advantageous position vis-a-vis the Sinhalese government and might be able to negotiate about political concessions and autonomy. This might induce them to try to put pressure on India as well, since in Tamilnadu, too, a government sympathetic to their demands is in power. This, however, needs diplomatic skill, and it remains to be seen whether the respective Tamil militant groups can meet the demands of this task. In the light of continuous JVP-attacks and the recent assassination of some leading Tamil politicians by the militants themselves, this must, however, be doubted.