Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Wirtschaftspolitik in Pakistan am Ende des sechsten Fünf-Jahres-Plans

Abstract

Pakistan’s growth performance of 6.9% p.a. (real GDP) during the first four years of the current Five-Year-Plan (1983-1988) has been impressive and has even exceeded the ambitious targets of the sixth plan. At the same time a very moderate rate of inflation has been achieved. These achievements, however, cannot conceal the fact that Pakistan is facing several structural problems which will endanger further economic growth and that the country has not succeeded in improving the living conditions of large groups of the population due to the neglect of social goals. Most social indicators are well below the level of similar developing countries. About 30% of the population live below the poverty line; the literacy rate is only 26% and is far lower amongst women, yet only 2% of GDP are spent on education; the health system is far from being satisfactory and is particularly underdeveloped in rural areas; only 44% of the population have access to clean drinking water and only 19% to sewerage systems; unemployment and underemployment become an increasing menace for a large section of the society. The investment and saving rates are still very low and there have been shortfalls from both private and public investment targets of the plan. The mounting budget deficit and the govemment’s inability to mobilise additional domestic resources are factors of grave concern. The internal and external debt has rapidly increased and debt service is absorbing a rising share of government expenditures. Without substantial changes this will soon lead to adverse consequences. The balance of payments - with imports exceeding the exports by more than 200% during most years - and the level of foreign exchange reserves have reached precarious positions. The inflow of remittances is decreasing and can no longer offset the trade gap. The disbursement of financial aid is stagnating and the net inflow of aid has slumped dramatically. A strengthening of Pakistan’s export performance is thus urgently required, but several factors contravene this objective.