Die Exportwirtschaft von Macau, 1979-1986

Abstract The years 1979 and 1980 were marked by the establishment of official relations between the PR China and Portugal, by the recognition of Macau as “Chinese territory under Portuguese administration”, and by the establishment of the Zhuhai Special Economic Zone in the border region of urban Macau. In April 1987 Portugal and China signed the well known “Joint Declaration on the Macau Question” on which the final negotiations had begun in 1986. Hence, the period 1979/80 - 1986/87 may be regarded as an era of transition in the history of Macau. During this period Macau’s economy expanded rapidly. With the exception of the year 1985, both Macau’s imports and exports grew fast, the balance of trade being positive since 1977 (except for 1980 and 1981).This growth can be attributed to several factors, for example, to the “Generalized System of Preferences” (GSP) under which Macau was able to sell large amounts of its products abroad. Monetary developments, the changing situation in Hong Kong, changes in demand for Macau products in the Western world, and other variables also determined Macau’s exports. Although Macau’s economy performed comparatively well, its export sector clearly showed some weak points: Macau was and still is heavily dependent on a small number of markets (the U.S., West Germany, France, Britain and Hong Kong) and the bulk of its exports is still composed of textiles as in the 1970s. Moreover, Macau’s efforts to diversify its exports (and to reduce its vulnerability to recessional developments in the EC and North America) have not been very successful. One of the underlying reasons for this dilemma may be seen in the demographic structure of the territory. Since the 1970s Macau’s population increased rapidly - mainly due to immigration from the PR China - thereby providing the territory’s labour market with a vast supply of unskilled workers (some even speak of excess supply conditions). As a result, most investments flowed into industries requiring large shares of labour input such as the production of textiles, toys, artificial flowers, etc. By contrast, there were few incentives to invest in sectors requiring a high level of technology and large shares of capital input. A second problem arises from the fact that Macau lacks adequate harbor facilities. Although the territory’s infrastructure improved, Macau still depends on Hong Kong for most of its shipments to and from the Western world. This, however, may change as Macau is on the way to building its own deep sea harbor. The construction of an independent harbor is also likely to improve Macau’s position as a base for its transit trade to and from China; it will certainly be beneficial to Macau’s light in- dustry which depends almost exclusively on exports.