Chinas Neue Revolution. Perspektiven der gegenwärtigen Modernisierungspolitik aus der Sicht des Historikers

Abstract China Is opening to the West after the death of Mao Zedong has once again attracted the interest of Western observers and not least of all Western businessmen. China seems to have entered a process of far-reaching economic and political changes, the most obvious expression of which is the campaign of the "Four Modernizations". At the same time, it is still rather difficult to assess the stability of the present policy and to estimate its implications and consequences. To sever the analysis from the vacillations of day-to-day politics we can try to detect the underlying structural problems by looking at historical instances with comparable patterns. In this article, two examples from Chinese history are chosen which illustrate the political and social implications of reform and modernization in the traditional Chinese bureaucratic authoritarianism. The first example - the reform policy of Wang Anshi during the Song dynasty - allows us to analyse some institutional problems of reform policy which derive mainly from the bureaucratic conditions of policy-making: factionalism and faction-strife within the bureaucracy are almost necessary results of these conditions. On the other hand, we can detect important limitations for reform caused by ideological purism, in the case of Song-China represented by orthodox Confucianism. This point is developed further in the second example, the Self-Strengthening-Movement in the late 19th century. In this instance we can also analyse the problems which arise for a modernization policy which tries to confine changes to the realm of technology and economy, while at the same time aiming at conserving the traditional social, political and ideological order. It is argued that there is basically a contradiction between modernizing change and conservative stabilisation of the existing political and social system. In the main part of the article the political, economic and social conditions of the present modernization policy are analysed against the background of these historical experiences. It is found that faction-strife within the bureaucratic party-organisation causes severe problems for any long-planning policy. Leaving out these problems, large-scale modernization would necessarily lead to far-reaching consequences for the political and social culture, which in turn could ultimately threaten the rule of the dominant party. Since it is not to be expected that this consequence will be accepted, the social and political changes which go hand in hand with modernization must be carefully controlled. This implies significant limitations for the speed and the range of the modernizing process. Nevertheless, it seems that the policy of the Four Modernizations can be interpreted as a continuation of a modernization movement which began in the last century and which finally may allow China to regain the political and cultural importance she has had in world history during the last three thousand years.