Ostasienhandel der Bundesrepublik - ein Geschäft mit Zukunft

Abstract

ln the course of the last two decades and particularly since the middle of the sixties East Asia is becoming an increasingly interesting business partner for the Federal Republic of Germany. Whilst during 1962—1973 the total volume of foreign trade of the Federal Republic of Germany increased by 216 per cent, at the same time the value of both the imports and exports effected with East Asia increased by 322 per cent. This growth is connected on the one hand with the favorable structure of both supply and demand of the individual countries, certain competitive advantages (low prices and relatively good quality for several consumption goods) as well as highly growing investments on the other hand with the flexible and often unorthodox and very frequently quite aggressive sales policy of both the Japanese and Chinese commercial establishments that rule decisively the trading in East Asia. The lfo-1 nstitute for Economic Research in Munich has carried out surveys with the German industry as well as with the German wholesale trade (written representational surveys and intensive interviews) in order to become better acquainted with the present structure as weil as the prospects of this trade for the next years. According to that with regard to the future ranking of different East Asian business partners of the Federal Republic of Germany ensues a leading group of 7 countries: Japan, the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan, Hongkong, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. But Japan keeps holding its leading position. However, one should not misapprehend the fact that the business relations between Germany and this country are at present strongly marked by a displacement. The export of the Federal Republic of Germany is gaining ascendance over the import. The ranking among the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan and Hongkong is bound to be in dispute in the course of the next years. In 1974 it seemed that Taiwan being closer behind Hongkong than ever before will advance to the third place, nevertheless, with a similar displacement as it is the case in Japan. It is most likely that the trading with the People’s Republic of China will at a short date not grow quickly as it has already been expected by some people. Altogether, in the next three years the German exports are bound to increase out of proportion in East Asia.