Entwicklungswelten 2030 - Versuche einer Annäherung

Abstract

Six scenarios are used to delineate possible futures: A: Conventional Textbook Growth, B: Millennium Development Goals not Achieved, C: Climate Change, D: Armed Distributional Conflicts, E: Chaos, and F: Shift of Paradigms. Eight policy options are discussed for dealing with these futures: I: Business as Usual, II: More of the Same, III: Resource Security, IV: Fighting Poverty, V: Addressing Pandemics, VI: Migration Policies, VII: Technological Competence, and VIII: Enclaves of Efficiency. New global risks will have to be addressed in the years to come. Rising scarcities as regards water, energy, foodstuffs and rare minerals are calling for an extended concept of both hard and soft security, possibly supported by peace-keeping operations. Goals, available means, constraints and time horizons will have to be discussed in a comprehensive manner. As futures are ever more difficult to predict, the challenge is to build resilience and potential, i.e. the capability to proact and react from a position of relative strength.